EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Climbs to 42.6% in Q1 FY2026

What Happened

On June 15, 2026, USCIS published [Form I-140 adjudication data](https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data) for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, covering petitions decided from October through December 2025. The main number is the EB-2 National Interest Waiver approval rate: 42.6%, up from 35.7% in Q4 FY2025.

The longer trend is still severe. NIW approvals were roughly 96% in FY2022, when filing volumes were much lower. As the category became more popular, partly because Indian-born professionals were looking for alternatives to years-long PERM backlogs, the approval rate fell to about 80% in FY2023, 71% in FY2024, and 55.2% for full FY2025. It then hit 35.7% in the final quarter of FY2025.

So the Q1 FY2026 number is not a return to near-automatic approval. It is a sign that the drop may be leveling off, and that USCIS adjudicators may be settling into a more consistent way of applying the [Matter of Dhanasar](https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-6-part-f-chapter-5) framework.

The Full Picture: NIW Approval Rates by Fiscal Year

The rebound makes more sense against the full trend. USCIS quarterly adjudication reports show this pattern:

• FY2022: ~96% approval rate (smaller filing pool, pandemic-era conditions)
• FY2023: ~80% (filing volumes rising fast)
• FY2024: ~71% (continued volume growth, tightening adjudication standards)
• FY2025 full year: 55.2% (sharp drop, record backlog of filings)
• FY2025 Q4 (Jul–Sep 2025): 35.7% (lowest quarterly rate on record)
• FY2026 Q1 (Oct–Dec 2025): 42.6% (first quarterly rebound)

EB-1A and O-1 Trends

The tougher posture is not limited to NIW. EB-1A Extraordinary Ability petitions finished FY2025 with a 66.9% approval rate, then dropped to roughly 53% in Q4 FY2025. EB-1A still approves at a higher rate than NIW, but it is moving in the same direction.

The O-1 nonimmigrant extraordinary ability classification, by contrast, remained above 90% throughout FY2025. Practitioners attribute the gap partly to the different evidentiary standards: O-1 requires a showing of extraordinary ability for a temporary work classification, while EB-1A demands sustained national or international acclaim for permanent residence.

EB-1A adjudication is also being shaped by litigation. In Mukherji v. Miller (D. Neb., Jan. 28, 2026), a federal district court questioned whether USCIS properly adopted its two-step "final merits" framework and ordered the petition approved after the agency conceded the petitioner met five of ten criteria. USCIS subsequently dropped its appeal in the case, providing practitioners with persuasive — though non-binding — authority to cite when responding to RFEs and Notices of Intent to Deny.

Why the NIW Recovery Matters

The 42.6% figure sends two signals.

First, USCIS adjudicators may be finding a baseline for Matter of Dhanasar's three-prong test. The fall from FY2022 to Q4 FY2025 came during a period of recalibration: adjudicators were applying tighter scrutiny while working through a large filing backlog, much of it submitted when perceived approval odds were higher. The Q1 FY2026 uptick suggests the first tightening wave may have passed its harshest point.

Second, well-prepared cases with concrete evidence continue to succeed. As immigration attorney Ana Gabriela Urizar of Manifest Law noted, "the data suggests that despite the heightened scrutiny USCIS has applied to NIW petitions in recent years, well-prepared cases with a clearly defined proposed endeavor, strong evidence of national importance, and compelling proof that the applicant is well-positioned to advance that endeavor continue to succeed."

What Attorneys Should Know

The data reinforces a basic point: category popularity does not carry a weak petition. Case quality still drives outcomes. Attorneys should track these patterns:

Under the [Matter of Dhanasar framework](https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-6-part-f-chapter-5) (USCIS Policy Manual, Vol. 6, Pt. F, Ch. 5), adjudicators are placing greater weight on Prong 2 ("the applicant is well positioned to advance the proposed endeavor") and Prong 3 ("on balance, it would be beneficial to the United States to waive the job offer and labor certification requirements"). Generic claims about broad societal benefit are no longer sufficient.

Healthcare, core STEM, national-security-adjacent fields, and applied research with measurable U.S. deployment continue to show stronger approval rates. But the category is not limited to these fields — cases in business, education, and the arts succeed when the proposed endeavor is framed narrowly and the evidence demonstrates concrete, documented impact.

The Mukherji decision, though non-binding, gives practitioners a framework for challenging EB-1A denials based on vague or conclusory USCIS reasoning. Attorneys should cite it in RFE responses where the record shows the petitioner clearly meets the regulatory criteria but the adjudicator has substituted personal judgment for the evidence presented.

With EB-2 India unavailable through September 30, 2026 per the [July 2026 Visa Bulletin](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html), and EB-1 India retrogressing, concurrent filing of EB-1A and NIW petitions is an increasingly important strategy for India-born clients. A successful petition in either category secures an earlier priority date and preserves flexibility as visa bulletin dates shift.

What Applicants Should Do

If you are considering a National Interest Waiver or EB-1A petition, the data supports filing only when the record is ready. These categories remain viable, but they require more preparation than they did two years ago.

• Frame your proposed endeavor narrowly and specifically. "Advancing artificial intelligence" is too broad; "developing privacy-preserving machine learning for U.S. healthcare systems" demonstrates the specificity adjudicators are rewarding.
• Document measurable impact beyond your employer: citations, adoption by other organizations, government or industry uptake, patents in use, measurable outcomes from your work.
• Secure independent recommendation letters from qualified experts who can speak to your specific contributions — not general praise, but detailed analysis of how your work has advanced the field.
• If you may qualify for both EB-1A and NIW, consider filing both concurrently. This creates two opportunities for approval and establishes two separate priority dates, which is especially valuable given current visa bulletin retrogression for India and China.
• If your self-petition profile is uncertain, a PERM-based EB-2 or EB-3 through your employer remains a reliable parallel path — typically slower, but a proven route.

What to Watch

Q1 FY2026 is only one quarter. Q2 data, covering January through March 2026, will show whether 42.6% is the start of stabilization or just a temporary bounce. Watch for:

• Q2 FY2026 I-140 data, expected in the coming months, will confirm whether the recovery trend continues.
• The DHS interim final rule on signature requirements, effective July 10, 2026, will affect how I-140 and I-485 filings are processed — electronic signatures captured outside the U.S. face new scrutiny.
• Continued litigation over the $100,000 H-1B fee in the First Circuit could reshape employer willingness to sponsor H-1B workers, potentially driving more professionals toward self-petition categories like NIW and EB-1A.
• Visa bulletin movement for EB-2 India, which is expected to advance again when FY2027 numbers become available on October 1, 2026.