H-1B Wage-Weighted Lottery: First FY2027 Selection Data Emerges

What Happened

The FY2027 H-1B cap season was the first conducted under the wage-weighted lottery, and the early data shows a fundamentally different selection landscape. USCIS confirmed on March 31, 2026 that the FY2027 cap was reached during the initial registration period, which ran March 4 through 19, 2026. Selected petitioners must file I-129 petitions by June 30, 2026.

Now, two months after selections were announced, immigration law firms and research organizations have begun publishing the first empirical analyses of how the new system performed. Two findings stand out: a steep drop in total registrations and a meaningful selection advantage for higher-compensated positions.

The wage-weighted selection process was established by a DHS final rule published December 29, 2025 ([90 FR 60,864](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/29/2025-23853/weighted-selection-process-for-registrants-and-petitioners-seeking-to-file-cap-subject-h-1b)), effective February 27, 2026. It replaced the prior random lottery with a system that assigns more entries to registrations offering higher prevailing wages.

How the Wage-Weighted System Works

Under the new rule, each H-1B registration receives entries in the lottery based on the Department of Labor Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) prevailing wage level for the offered position:

• Level IV (highest wages): 4 entries
• Level III: 3 entries
• Level II: 2 entries
• Level I (entry-level wages): 1 entry

What the First Data Shows

USCIS has not published an official statistical breakdown by wage level as of May 31, 2026. However, two sources of data provide an early picture: law firm client-sample analyses and DHS's own pre-rule projections from the rulemaking record.

• Boundless Immigration, drawing on a combination of USCIS national data and its own client outcomes, reported approximate selection rates of 40% for Level I, 68% for Level III, and 64% for Level IV in a [May 2026 analysis](https://www.boundless.com/blog/the-h-1b-lottery-has-changed-heres-what-the-first-data-shows). No Level II rate or sample size was disclosed.
• DHS projected rates of roughly 15% for Level I, 31% for Level II, 46% for Level III, and 61% for Level IV in the final rule preamble (90 FR at 60,932-60,958). These projections assumed higher registration volumes than what materialized.
• The gap between DHS projections and observed rates is largely explained by the registration decline. Fewer registrations mean a higher overall selection rate, which lifts observed rates across all levels while preserving the relative advantage for higher-paid positions.
• The [Penn Wharton Budget Model](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2026/2/2/projected-effects-of-the-new-march-2026-h-1b-visa-lottery) projected that the wage-weighted system would shift the average offered compensation for selected H-1B workers from approximately $112,300 to $121,900, an increase of about 8.5%. It also estimated that the share of Level I workers among selections would fall from 27% to 14%, while Level IV's share would rise from 15.5% to 26%.

Registrations Plunged 38 Percent

The total number of FY2027 H-1B registrations is estimated at approximately 211,600, according to immigration industry sources. That represents a steep decline from prior years:

• FY2026: 343,981 eligible registrations (USCIS confirmed)
• FY2025: 470,342 eligible registrations (USCIS confirmed)
• FY2024: approximately 758,994 eligible registrations (peak year)

Who Is Affected

The wage-weighted system reshapes the H-1B selection landscape along clear lines.

• IT staffing and consulting firms that typically place workers at Level I or Level II wages face substantially reduced selection odds. Many appear to have opted not to register at all, which accounts for a significant portion of the registration decline.
• Large technology companies and established employers offering Level III and Level IV compensation have a structural advantage, with early data suggesting selection rates roughly 1.7 times higher than entry-level positions.
• Entry-level workers, including recent graduates pursuing their first H-1B, are disadvantaged even in specialty occupations where they are qualified, because their positions typically command Level I prevailing wages.
• Employers in lower-cost geographic areas face a compounding effect: prevailing wage levels are area-specific, so a position that would qualify as Level III in San Francisco may be Level II or Level I in a smaller metro.

What Attorneys Should Know

The wage-weighted lottery was promulgated under DHS authority at INA section 214(g)(3) and codified at [8 CFR section 214.2(h)(8)(ii)](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/29/2025-23853/weighted-selection-process-for-registrants-and-petitioners-seeking-to-file-cap-subject-h-1b). The final rule (RIN 1615-AD01, Docket USCIS-2025-0040) received over 3,000 public comments but was finalized substantially as proposed.

No federal lawsuit has been filed challenging the wage-weighted lottery rule as of this date. During the comment period, opponents argued that DHS exceeded its statutory authority by using prevailing wage as a proxy for skill and that the rule is arbitrary and capricious under the APA because it conflates compensation with the specialty occupation standard at INA section 214(i). Those arguments remain available for future litigation but have not been tested in court.

The three pending lawsuits target the separate [$100,000 H-1B fee](/blog/trump-100000-h1b-fee-explained): [Chamber of Commerce v. DHS](https://www.fisherphillips.com/en/news-insights/whats-the-status-of-lawsuits-challenging-h-1b-visa-overhaul.html) (D.C. Circuit, on appeal after district court dismissal), Global Nurse Force v. Trump (N.D. Cal.), and State of California v. Noem (D. Mass., multistate action with 20 states). These cases are distinct from the lottery weighting mechanism.

For FY2028 planning, attorneys should advise clients to carefully document OEWS prevailing wage level classifications. Any discrepancy between the wage level on the registration and the subsequently filed I-129 petition could trigger a denial. Consider whether positions can legitimately be reclassified at a higher level based on actual duties, required experience, and supervisory responsibilities.

What Applicants Should Do

If you are pursuing H-1B sponsorship, the wage-weighted system changes how you should evaluate opportunities. Here are concrete steps.

• Ask your employer which OEWS prevailing wage level your position falls under. Level III and IV positions have meaningfully better odds. If your role involves duties, experience requirements, or supervisory responsibilities that support a higher classification, work with your employer and attorney to ensure the correct level is used.
• If you were selected in FY2027, confirm your employer will file the I-129 petition before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Verify that the wage level, SOC code, and employment location on the petition match the registration.
• If you were not selected, explore alternatives: cap-exempt H-1B employers (universities, nonprofit research organizations, government research organizations) are not subject to the lottery. O-1A or O-1B extraordinary ability visas and employer-sponsored EB green card processes (EB-2, EB-3, or EB-1 for qualifying individuals) offer parallel paths.
• Watch for USCIS's official FY2027 statistical release, expected in summer or fall 2026, which will provide definitive selection rate data by wage level and replace the current law-firm estimates.