EB Green Card Backlog Hits 1.26M — 179-Year Wait for Indians

What Happened

The [National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP)](https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-employment-based-immigration-backlogs-and-waiting-times/) released a policy brief in late August 2026 analyzing U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services data on employment-based immigration backlogs. The headline finding: the total backlog across the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 preference categories now stands at 1,264,495 people as of December 2025, including estimated dependents.

That figure represents a 20.6% increase — or 216,153 additional people — compared to April 2020, when the backlog stood at 1,048,342. The growth occurred despite the issuance of approximately 280,000 extra employment-based green cards between fiscal years 2020 and 2024, made possible by unused family-based visa numbers rolling over into the employment categories during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report, authored by NFAP Executive Director Stuart Anderson, warns that without legislative changes, the backlog will exceed 2 million people within 15 years.

The Numbers by Country and Category

Indian nationals bear the overwhelming burden of the backlog, accounting for 996,599 of the 1.26 million people waiting — nearly 80% of the total. The concentration is heaviest in the EB-2 category, where 731,566 Indian applicants and their dependents remain in the queue, followed by 213,414 in EB-3 and 51,619 in EB-1.

Based on the current [Visa Bulletin](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html) and existing processing rates, NFAP projects the following wait times for individuals with petitions filed in 2026:

• India EB-2: up to 179 years — EB-2 India remains effectively unavailable, with a final action date that has not advanced beyond September 2013
• India EB-3: up to 38 years
• India EB-1: approximately 5 years (EB-1 India priority date currently at October 15, 2022)
• China EB-2: up to 25 years
• China EB-3: up to 7 years
• China EB-1: approximately 5 years
• Philippines EB-3: up to 6 years (backlog of 39,000+, a 91.7% increase from April 2020)

Why the Backlog Keeps Growing

Two statutory constraints, both established by Congress in 1990, drive the structural deficit. First, federal law caps total employment-based immigrant visas at 140,000 per year — a number that includes the spouse and children of every principal applicant. Dependents typically consume more than half of available slots, meaning fewer than 70,000 workers receive green cards annually.

Second, the Immigration and Nationality Act imposes a 7% per-country limit (INA § 202(a)(2)), meaning India and China — which together generate the vast majority of employment-based demand — receive the same annual allocation as countries like Iceland or Luxembourg.

NFAP's analysis illustrates how this mismatch compounds. In fiscal year 2016 alone, USCIS approved 47,601 EB-2 applications for Indian nationals — translating to an estimated 98,594 people including dependents. But only 4,407 Indians received EB-2 green cards that year. A single year added over 90,000 people to the backlog. Similar surges occurred in FY 2017 and FY 2018.

The backlog between April 2020 and December 2025 grew by 22.9% (156,612 people) in EB-2 and 30.1% (78,394 people) in EB-3. The EB-1 backlog actually decreased by 16.6% (16,832 people), likely reflecting higher throughput and the narrower applicant pool in the extraordinary ability and multinational executive categories.

What Attorneys Should Know

The NFAP data reinforces several strategic considerations for employment-based immigration practitioners:

• EB-1 remains the fastest path for Indian and Chinese nationals — with approximately 5-year waits versus decades in EB-2/EB-3. Practitioners should evaluate EB-1A (extraordinary ability) and EB-1B (outstanding researchers) eligibility aggressively for qualifying clients, particularly given the relatively lower backlog
• The EB-2 India category is functionally closed to new applicants for the foreseeable future. Clients with EB-2 priority dates after 2013 should consider whether EB-1 reclassification or EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) strategies offer faster paths — though NIW applicants face the same final action date constraints
• EB-3 downgrade strategies may offer counterintuitive advantages for some Indian applicants, as EB-3 India (38-year projected wait) moves faster than EB-2 India (179 years) due to different backlog dynamics and the January 1, 2014 final action date versus EB-2's effective unavailability
• The 140,000 annual cap includes dependents under INA § 203(d). NFAP estimates dependents consume over half of available visas, meaning the effective worker cap is closer to 65,000–70,000. This should be factored into client counseling on realistic timelines
• Congressional reform efforts — including the 2022 STEM exemption provision that passed the House before being blocked by Sen. Grassley — remain the only structural solution. Attorneys should track current legislative proposals and advise clients on advocacy opportunities

What Applicants Should Do

If you are waiting in the employment-based green card queue — or planning to enter it — here are the practical steps to consider right now:

• Check your priority date against the current Visa Bulletin Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing charts at travel.state.gov. If your date is current or approaching, ensure your adjustment of status (I-485) application or consular processing (DS-260) paperwork is ready to file immediately
• If you are in EB-2 India, discuss with your attorney whether an EB-1 reclassification is viable. The EB-1A extraordinary ability category does not require employer sponsorship or PERM labor certification, and the current 5-year projected wait is dramatically shorter than EB-2's 179 years
• Maintain your H-1B or other nonimmigrant status carefully while waiting. Green card applicants must remain in valid status, and any gap can jeopardize years of waiting. Keep all I-94 records, approval notices, and employment authorization documents organized
• If your employer is sponsoring you, confirm that your PERM labor certification is progressing — average processing times currently stand at 403 days for standard analyst reviews and 290 days for audit reviews, on top of prevailing wage determination wait times
• Consider filing I-485 if your priority date is current under the Dates for Filing chart and USCIS accepts that chart for the month, even if the Final Action Date has not reached your date. Filing I-485 unlocks employment authorization (EAD) and advance parole (travel document) benefits while you wait

The Bigger Picture

The NFAP report lands at a moment when the employment-based immigration system is under pressure from multiple directions. DHS has [proposed a $103,265 fee for cap-subject H-1B petitions](https://haven-h1b.com/blog/dhs-103k-h1b-cap-fee-proposed-rule-2026), is [moving to eliminate the 60-day post-employment grace period](https://haven-h1b.com/blog/60-day-grace-period-oira-clearance-federal-register-2026) for H-1B and other workers, and is preparing reforms to H-1B cap-exemption criteria.

For the hundreds of thousands of skilled workers already in the green card queue, these parallel developments compound the uncertainty. The $103,265 fee could discourage new H-1B sponsorship, potentially slowing the pipeline of workers who eventually seek EB green cards. The grace period elimination could increase the risk for workers who lose employment while their green card applications are pending.

The 140,000 annual cap was set in 1990, before smartphones, widespread internet use, and the AI revolution that now drives much of the demand for technically skilled workers. As NFAP notes, international students account for approximately 75% to 80% of full-time graduate students in AI-related fields at U.S. universities — many of whom enter the H-1B-to-green-card pipeline after graduation.

Until Congress acts, the backlog will continue to grow. The question is whether the political will exists to update a system designed for a fundamentally different economy.