USCIS Backlog Hits 11.3M as EB-1A and EB-2 NIW Denial Rates Surge

What Happened

The American Immigration Council's [USCIS Immigration Filing Trends Dashboard](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/uscis-immigration-filing-trends), last updated on August 3, 2026, reveals a significant deterioration in employment-based immigration processing during the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October–December 2025).

The USCIS case backlog climbed to 11.3 million pending applications and petitions — a 16.5% increase from 9.7 million in FY2025 Q1. This increase came despite a 33.6% decline in new filings, meaning the agency is falling further behind even as demand drops. USCIS completed 40.8% fewer cases compared to the same quarter a year earlier.

Denial rates surged across employment-based categories. The overall USCIS denial rate rose from 8.9% to 12.2%. But the sharpest increases hit the categories most relied upon by highly skilled workers seeking permanent residency:

• **EB-1 petitions overall:** denial rate jumped from 13.9% to 30.1%
• **EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability):** denial rate more than doubled, from 25.3% to 52.5%
• **EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW):** denial rate rose from 37.3% to 57.4%

The India-Specific Impact on EB-1A

Separately, data from [Boundless Immigration](https://www.boundless.com/) based on USCIS figures — reported by the [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/migrate/us-immigration-delays-worsen-and-denial-rates-climb-as-uscis-backlog-surges-to-11-3-million/articleshow/133288815.cms) and the [Times of India](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/trump-admin-crackdown-indian-techies-see-biggest-hit-as-us-green-card-approvals-plunge-sharply/articleshow/133289971.cms) — shows that Indian applicants are bearing a disproportionate share of the EB-1A downturn.

Indian applicants filed 14,250 EB-1A petitions in FY2025, of which 6,993 were approved and 1,474 were denied — an approval rate of approximately 49.1%. In the first two quarters of FY2026, Indians filed 7,316 petitions with only 2,571 approvals and 1,131 denials, dropping the approval rate to roughly 35%.

Xiao Wang, co-founder and CEO of Boundless Immigration, told the Economic Times that the decline has been "particularly pronounced among technology professionals from India, followed by Chinese applicants, who together account for the largest volumes of EB-1A filings."

Why Denial Rates Are Rising

Immigration attorneys attribute the surge in denials to a policy-level shift in adjudication standards rather than any change in the underlying law or a decline in applicant quality.

"The chief driver here is a shift in executive policy. The current administration has adopted a noticeably hostile posture toward immigration, and that mandate is clearly being implemented via adjudicators who are now demanding an unreasonably high bar be met," said Joel Yanovich, Senior Attorney at Ganey Law Group, in comments [reported by the Times of India](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/trump-admin-crackdown-indian-techies-see-biggest-hit-as-us-green-card-approvals-plunge-sharply/articleshow/133289971.cms).

Wang noted that in early 2025, meeting three of the ten EB-1A criteria with supporting evidence was generally sufficient. That approach is "increasingly proving insufficient." Specifically, two criteria — "performing in a leading or critical role for distinguished organizations" and "commanding a high salary relative to others in your field" — are now treated as baseline requirements, with at least one additional criterion needing strong, high-quality evidence.

U.S.-based immigration attorney Rajiv Khanna observed that the government has made the adjudication process "exceptionally difficult, even though at least one court has found the methodology being applied to be incorrect."

The Backlog Math: Why It Keeps Getting Worse

The USCIS efficiency ratio — calculated by dividing completed cases by new receipts — has remained below 1.0 for 11 consecutive quarters. In FY2026 Q1, the agency completed only 86 applications for every 100 it received. A ratio below 1.0 means the backlog grows even when filing volumes decline.

Average backlog clearance time — the estimated time to clear all pending cases at the current completion rate — nearly doubled to approximately 18.6 months. For employment-based petitions specifically, waits are often considerably longer.

This systemic processing deficit has compounding effects. As backlogs grow, adjudicators face increasing caseload pressure, which can contribute to both slower processing and higher denial rates as cases receive less individualized attention.

What Attorneys Should Know

The denial rate data comes from the American Immigration Council's analysis of USCIS's own Immigration and Citizenship Data portal. The dashboard calculates denial rates by dividing denied cases by total completions (approvals plus denials) for each form type and quarter. The methodology is transparent and uses standardized quarterly snapshots starting from FY2016.

For EB-1A petitions (Form I-140, classification E11), the 52.5% denial rate in FY2026 Q1 represents a structural shift, not a statistical blip. The prior baseline hovered around 25% for several quarters. Attorneys should recalibrate client expectations and evidentiary strategies accordingly.

For EB-2 NIW petitions, the 57.4% denial rate means more petitions are being denied than approved. This is especially relevant for applicants who may have relied on the NIW path as a faster alternative to PERM-based EB-2. The evidentiary bar for demonstrating that the proposed endeavor is in the national interest — and that the applicant is well-positioned to advance it — appears to be under significantly tighter scrutiny.

Practitioners should also note the broader context: EB-2 India is already [unavailable for the remainder of FY2026](https://www.financialexpress.com/immigration/eb-1-india-eb-2-unavailable-indian-green-card-applicants/4318762/), and the State Department has warned that EB-1 India could become unavailable before September 30 if demand exhausts the per-country limit.

What Applicants Should Do

If you are preparing or have recently filed an EB-1A or EB-2 NIW petition, the current adjudication environment demands stronger preparation than at any point in recent years.

• **For EB-1A petitions:** Treat the "leading or critical role" and "high salary" criteria as minimum requirements, not differentiators. Focus on building a strong case for at least one additional criterion with robust, independent evidence — expert letters from outside your immediate professional circle, quantifiable impact metrics, and media coverage or peer recognition.
• **For EB-2 NIW petitions:** Strengthen your showing under all three prongs of the *Matter of Dhanasar* framework. The "national interest" prong is receiving the most scrutiny — demonstrate concrete, measurable benefits to the United States beyond your individual career advancement.
• **For pending cases:** If you have a pending I-140 that receives a Request for Evidence (RFE) or Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID), respond with substantially more evidence than you might have considered necessary a year ago. The denial rates suggest adjudicators are not giving borderline cases the benefit of the doubt.
• **For timing considerations:** If your priority date is current for EB-1 India and you are eligible to file I-485, consider filing before September 30, as the category could become unavailable for the remainder of FY2026.
• **Consider premium processing** where available to get a faster decision and the opportunity to respond to an RFE within the current fiscal year, rather than having a case pend into an uncertain FY2027 adjudication climate.